原油价格近期是走向60美元还是走向40美元？
最近十天，原油三月份期货的价格从最低43.58美元（1/29/2015）升到53.06（2/06/2015），在短短几天内爆升了约22%。这是否表示原油已经触底，从底部强烈反弹，未来将持续上升呢？
首先要明白世界原油生产的成本架构，然后有什么力量让原油价格上升，有什么力量使原油价格下跌。把所有的因素都考虑进来之后，才能做出正确的判断。
世界原油生产的成本架构可以参看下图：
伊朗和伊拉克原油生产的成本平均约20美元。沙地阿拉伯油价成本是8-10美元一桶，是全世界最低的。
原油的成本与开采的方法是有关。原油开采方式有：
1．平地开采，成本最低。油井的压力，深度与地下油库的地形。新油井压力高，产油量也高，成本最低。老油井需要灌水或蒸汽增加井压，会增加一些成本。一般从8-30美元。在阿拉斯加和俄罗斯北部，由于气候寒冷，油井和输送管要加温，使原油不致凝固。所以成本约增加10美元。
2．海洋开采，浅海和深海成本有差别。墨西哥湾的钻油台大约成本60-70美元，油井深度从10到超过20公里深。巴西深海钻油台成本超过70美元。
3．美国的岩页油开采是要在山体里钻洞，铺设加热管来把油煮出来。成本在于最初铺设加热管线向银行贷款的利息和耗电量。不清楚为何新开采时的产量比较低，过了约两年之后，产油量可增加至近一倍。也许是开采技术和经验提高的部分原因。四年前，岩页油开采成本在70-90美元左右。现在大约40-80美元。
4．加拿大的油砂，也是用煮的方法，将砂里的油煮出来。成本在50-100美元之间。
下跌的压力：
1．美国的产油，从2008年约日产480万桶升至2014年底913万桶，几乎成长近一倍。世界各地，包括中国的产量也增加不少。
2．世界其他地区重要的因素是伊拉克的产量提高至日产400万桶。一年前，伊朗的石油解禁运，加入国际市场。伊朗解禁之前，库存了不少卖不出去的油，租用超级大邮轮装。这些油陆陆续续进入市场。伊朗库存油这一部分，可以被中国去年大量采购战略储备油完全抵消，估计还不够。
3．世界原油产量实在是过剩太多，全球消耗量每日为91.39 百万桶，2014年每日产量平均92.18百万桶。消耗量是已经包含各国的战略储备油，中国的战略储备油第一期储藏容量已经九成满了，第二期还需要几年才会完工。所以过剩的原油每日将近一百万桶，已经无处可存放。全世界海上和陆地上（不包含战略储备油）可库存的商业待售原油容量（不包含在各炼油和产地的容量）约4亿桶，去年超额的石油量至少占了3.4亿桶。若是仍旧以每日进一百万桶的速度增加，最多再60天就无处可存。现在有许多国家和公司为了弥补油价下跌造成的收入减少，拼命增加产量，希望别人扛不住，减产或倒闭。这是非常恶性的竞争，非分出你死我活的恶性循环。
4．全球经济放缓，特别是今年一月份，中国进口原油量大跌。去年十二月份，中国因为原油价格便宜，抢进太多的原油了。一月30日，美国的原油库存量达到有记录以来最高，413百万桶，相当于45天的产量。（http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm
）。一桶原油（42加仑）可提炼成12加仑的柴油和19加仑的汽油。美国每天消耗各种油品平均约为18.89百万桶。
5．原油生产商和国家利用远期期货高于现货价格在卖原油。比如2015年10月份的原油期货，去年九月份时为100.55元/桶，高于现货约4美元。请看附录3。今天2015年10月份的原油期货收盘为64.17美元/桶。等于厂家大赚！（产油商作卖空对冲）。所以利用期货做空对冲，许多有经验的产油商还可以支持许久，因为卖出的价格比实际现货的价格高出许多，也高于生产成本加储藏费。
6．俄罗斯，委内瑞拉，伊朗大概会增产来弥补油价的下跌所损失的财政收入。加拿大据说目前不会减产。
Rig Count Overview & Summary
Count
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上升的力量：
1。美国的钻油台锐减，从1/30/2015 到2/6/2015，减掉了87台。目前还剩1456台。关掉的87台钻油台，估计是产量不高，不合经济效益的。从去年年底的2024台，美国每星期关掉的钻油台约80-90，六个星期来少了568台。这是原油价格前两星期暴涨的原因。可是，很奇怪的，美国原油的产量并没有减少多少！库存量还是以惊人的速度续增，每星期以约5百万桶的速度增加，令人迷惑！（请看后面附录数据）。这一点，Barclay能源通货研究的主管Michael Cohen今天在CNBC接受采访时，给了一种说法，请看附录2。
岩页/油沙成本偏高，大约从40-80美元一桶，但是无法停产。成本主要是向银行贷款的钻油和加热管线设备，然后才是煮岩页/油沙的耗电。不产油每天都要赔巨额的利息。估计有许多美加开采公司要倒闭，才会减产。
深海（海洋）钻油成本最高，大约从60-90美元。成本主要是租用海洋钻油台和设备，租约到期可以不续租，或提前解约。估计要再关掉剩1000+台，油价才可能停跌。若是2/13日钻油台数目没继续大跌，油价会暴跌。反之会大涨。
沙地阿拉伯油价成本是8-10美元一桶，沙地阿拉伯不减产，只能等美加公司减产和破产。沙地阿拉伯认为成本高的产油井应该先减产或关闭，也就是美国应该减产。
伊朗原油成本约20美元一桶，沙地阿拉伯不减产，伊朗也不会减产。他们只会增产来弥补财政赤字。
欧美希望苏俄经济垮台，所以原油价格大跌，对欧洲大大有利。对美国石油业虽然不利，但欧巴马不是布什，不是经营石油家族，所以也不会利用外交政策干预。 原油价格大跌对美国消费者和经济原则上是有益处的。
所以，最乐观要到年底才会明朗。
2。利比亚动乱可能影响到利比亚的减产。
3。如果俄罗斯全面进军乌克兰，估计原油会大涨。
4。航空公司在购买石油/原油期货来做多对冲。可是原油现货价格比期货价格低至少低四美元。航空公司做多对冲与产油商做空对冲至少相抵消。
总结：
原油价格未来的走势要看美国产油商是否有实质，有意义的减产。若本星期四的库存量报告还是维持4-5百万桶的增加量，钻油台数下降减缓，原油价格将暴跌，向下测试40美元一桶。反之会持续缓缓上涨。上升缓慢的原因是因为原油价格在50美元以上，美国大部分的产油商就有利可图。没必要关闭油井。前两星期原油价暴涨是期货带动的，是期货Short Squeezes（Covering），累积做空者过多，超过80%。许多做空者被迫补仓。现在估计Oversold情形已经不在。若是原油库存量增加不多，价格大概维持在目前的范围，也就是48-53美元一桶之间。
附录1。美国最新的石油，原油库存量。
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GraphClear |
12/26/14 |
01/02/15 |
01/09/15 |
01/16/15 |
01/23/15 |
01/30/15 |
View |
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1,830,087 |
1,839,994 |
1,850,206 |
1,852,603 |
1,854,623 |
1,866,755 |
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1,139,124 |
1,149,033 |
1,159,247 |
1,161,645 |
1,163,666 |
1,175,798 |
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1,076,418 |
1,073,354 |
1,078,741 |
1,088,811 |
1,097,684 |
1,104,017 |
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385,455 |
382,393 |
387,782 |
397,853 |
406,727 |
413,060 |
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4,659 |
4,113 |
4,302 |
3,500 |
4,315 |
4,123 |
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690,963 |
690,961 |
690,959 |
690,958 |
690,957 |
690,957 |
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229,048 |
237,163 |
240,334 |
240,922 |
238,335 |
240,670 |
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31,538 |
30,536 |
30,096 |
30,471 |
28,730 |
29,828 |
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http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm
附录2。
Forget rally, oil heading lower: Analyst
Last
week, the market rallied on news that the U.S. oil rig count was at a
three-year low. The count was down 87 rigs from the week prior, and down 315
from last year, according to the oil services Baker Hughes.
However,
Cohen noted that just because the rig count is down doesn't necessarily mean
that production is cut.
In
fact, drilling productivity is expected to increase over the course of this
year, he said. In addition, there is a lag between the time that you drill a
well and the time that you connect it.
For
example, rig counts dropped by over 600 in Texas in 2008-2009, but production
only fell 50,000 barrels per day in the Lone Star State during that period.
（http://www.cnbc.com/id/102409548）
附录3。
欧洲Brent Crude去年九月份的现货和期货价格，以及待售库存量。（http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-quirk-sends-crude-out-to-sea-1411072050
）
The amount of oil tied up in
the strategy has risen to between 25 million and 50 million barrels of crude
from almost zero as of April, oil-market traders and analysts estimate, based on
trading and ship-chartering data. That amount represents more than one to two
days' worth of U.S. demand.
More than 70 million barrels
were stored as part of the trade in April 2009, the last time spot prices
stayed below futures prices for a sustained period, according to Energy
Aspects, a London-based research and consulting firm.
The spike in oil being stored
on the high seas has caught the attention of many investors, who say it is the
hallmark of a global supply glut and signals that oil prices—already at
two-year lows—are likely to keep falling.
"It shows that there's
oversupply in the market due to weak demand," said Amrita Sen, an analyst
with Energy Aspects.
In recent weeks, Mercuria, one
of the world's largest commodity traders, chartered tankers to haul crude to
storage facilities in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, traders and analysts said.
Sinopec, the world's third-largest company by revenue, leased the 3.2
million-barrel supertanker TI Europe, anchored off the eastern coast of
Malaysia on Wednesday, to hold crude in storage and is planning to pick up more
cargoes in the coming days, traders said. Also last week, Vitol offered a cargo
for sale directly from a tanker, rather than from a port, a sign that the
trading firm had used the oil to conduct a storage trade, a London trader said.
Mercuria and Sinopec didn't
respond to requests for comment. A Vitol spokeswoman said the firm doesn't
comment on trading activities.
Brent crude oil, the benchmark
for world prices, has slid 14% in the past three months amid rising production
in places like the U.S., Libya, Iraq and West Africa—and the belief that
supplies will continue to outstrip demand.
In July, the spot price of
Brent contracts fell below the price of Brent for delivery in later months for
a sustained period for the first time since early 2011. When this price pattern
emerged, the gap between contracts for near-month delivery and the following
month was five cents. On Thursday, the difference was as much as $2.04,
surpassing the 70-cent gap analysts and traders say is necessary to make a
profit on the trade, taking into account storage and capital costs. The gap
shrank to 66 cents at Thursday's close.
While buying and storing crude
is a trade available mostly to companies steeped in physical-oil markets, some
investors have started trying to replicate it in financial markets, rather than
making simple up-or-down bets on the direction of prices.
Michel Salden, co-manager of
$600 million at Harcourt, an asset manager in Zurich, is wagering that gap
between short- and long-term Brent prices will continue to widen as oil demand
stays sluggish.
"In this environment, it's
hard to play the directionality of the market," Mr. Salden said.
Some analysts say excess oil
supplies already are reflected in the current price of front-month Brent, which
settled down 1.3% on Thursday at $97.70 a barrel. Brent for delivery in the
next month, December, settled down 1.2% at $98.36 a barrel.
Mr. Salden said he has profited
from his positions but declined to disclose details.
Although it is a boon for
physical traders, the higher price of Brent for delivery further out can punish
many money managers who invest in commodities through passive index funds.
Managers of these index funds sell futures contracts before they expire to
avoid taking physical delivery of the commodity. To maintain steady exposure,
they then buy the more-expensive contract for later delivery, which erodes
returns.
"If it does persist, it
will be a meaningful incremental drag on returns," said Nicholas Johnson,
who oversees $25 billion in commodity investments at Pacific Investment
Management Co., a division of Allianz AG. Pimco is placing bets on the price
gap between Brent and U.S. crude, which, unlike Brent, is cheaper for delivery
in several months.
Companies are seeking to take
advantage of the unusual prices in oil market while they can.
"Crude-oil storage is once
again happening in the Eastern Atlantic, South Africa and Asia," said
Stephen Wolfe, senior analyst with commodity-trading firm Trafigura Beheer BV
in Houston. "Regional surpluses arose in Asia, Africa and the North Sea at
times over the last two months, placing pressure on prices and making [the]
storage [trade] profitable."
—Sarah Kent
contributed to this article.